Scenario Analysis for Renewable Energy Investment: This study explores future renewable energy investment scenarios in Saudi Arabia using a novel hybrid framework.
Key Insights:
- A hybrid framework is introduced for analyzing renewable energy investments.
- The approach integrates Leontief and fuzzy group decision support models.
- Expert opinions are combined with statistical data for comprehensive analysis.
- Sensitivity analysis evaluates the framework’s robustness.
Study Overview: The research aims to identify optimal renewable energy investment scenarios by employing a hybrid framework that merges macroeconomic assumptions, historical data, and expert judgments. It addresses uncertainties in future investments using Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set theory.
The framework’s application in Saudi Arabia unfolds in three phases:
- Using Leontief’s input-output model, three investment scenarios for 2030 are proposed: the ‘base scenario’ with an investment of 112 billion Saudi Riyals, ‘alternative scenario 1’ with 75 billion, and ‘alternative scenario 2’ with 25 billion.
- Five decision criteria are established to select the optimal scenario: Economic, Environmental, Social, Public preferences, and Risk.
- A Fuzzy Group Decision Support model ranks the scenarios, favoring the ‘base scenario’ and ‘alternative scenario 1’ over ‘alternative scenario 2’. Sensitivity analysis confirms these findings.
Keywords: Renewable Energy Investments, Leontief’s input-output model, IFS, VIKOR method, Multiple-Criteria Group Decision-Making (MCGDM).
Data is available upon request.
